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The Corona crisis is reaching the real estate market - will property prices change?

The Corona crisis is making itself felt among property owners, the property market is currently at a standstill. With good reason because experts fear negative economic consequences of the pandemic. The tourism and commercial sectors are particularly affected by the crisis, but the residential sector is also feeling the effects of the crisis.

Is the real estate boom over now? Expert opinions diverge!

One headline chases the other: "The real estate bubble bursts" or "The Corona crisis freezes the real estate market!" We try to decipher the expert opinions and answer the question of which trend is to be recognized. How will the real estate market develop? What effect will the coronavirus have on the price level of real estate? What economic damage will the German economy suffer as a whole?

The real estate bubble will burst, say the pessimists

For some experts, the Corona crisis is the turning point in the real estate market. The pessimists forecast a decline in the purchasing power of investments. This is because many tenants and prospective buyers are particularly affected by the new emergency. Short-time work, the loss of jobs or other economic difficulties are effects of the crisis, so the risk appetite of new investments has fallen for the first time. In general, it can be said that households will hold back on major investments during the recession. Policymakers are also protecting tenants by preventing landlords from terminating tenants for a certain period in the event of late payment. For rent arrears in the period from 1 April to 30 June 2020, the landlord may not terminate the lease for a period of two years. This additional protection reduces investment. In addition, the borders to Germany are closed so that investments from abroad cannot be made. The pandemic has triggered an economic regression and it is not possible to say at this point how far this depression will extend. First, these challenges must be overcome, so that we can go back talking about growth again and this may take years.

H3 Short-term standstill in the housing market, according to the optimists

The other side sees the current crisis as a temporary condition that we will quickly overcome. According to the experts, the structural factors responsible for the boom will continue to apply after the pandemic. The structural factors are the high demand for housing with a lack of new constructions at the same time, the low-interest environment, and the migration to the cities. And, these factors cannot be switched off so quickly. Similarly, the Verband deutscher Pfandbriefbanken (Association for Banks of German Bonds) reports that there is still no sign of a decline in mortgage and construction loans. Demand for private real estate financing is still strong, but a slight decline in constructions loans and mortgages is also evident. In principle, the experts forecast that demand will stabilize in the medium term. However, this positive turnaround can only be achieved if the recession leaves a dent in the economy, and thus few long-term challenges follow. Deutsche Bank hopes for a quick economic recovery, so the real estate bubble would not have burst.

Corona and the question of real estate prices

It is not yet possible to estimate how the current crisis will affect the price level for real estate in concrete terms. However, experts, both optimists and pessimists, estimate that the price level will decline. The research institute Empirica, which specializes in the real estate market, predicts that prices could fall by 10 to 25 percent. The Institut der Deutschen Wirtschaft (Institute of the German Economy) expects prices to fall by up to 12 percent this year.

A prediction about how long the downward trend will continue also cannot be made with certainty. However, the crisis will not be overcome overnight; the bear market in the real estate sector may last a very long time. In addition, many fluctuations are to be expected, as the crisis may become even more acute. If, for example, the restrictions are further intensified by an increasing Corona crisis, the development can no longer be assessed at all. In such uncertain times, fewer and fewer people are willing to invest their money in real estate. They keep their money together. Society and the economy in general are currently facing a challenge unlike anything seen in the last 100 years, and how we leave this crisis is still written in the stars.

Sell real estate now

The negative development that threatens the real estate industry as a result of the Corona crisis is still in its infancy. Now there is still an opportunity for real estate owners to sell their own property at a price similar to the market price. However, quick action is required to avoid an increasing loss of value of their own property.

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